A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
